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                                                                                                                                                                          澳门凤凰线上娱乐:降息预期升温 美元多头料离场观望

                                                                                                                                                                          2019-06-11 01:45 宁波市新闻资讯中心

                                                                                                                                                                          日前随着美联储降息的预期不断升温,市场对于美元的看多情绪明显降温,对冲基金等投资者开始削减持有的美元多仓。业内人士预计,未来如果美联储进一步释放“鸽派”信号,更多多头可能选择离场观望。

                                                                                                                                                                          美元净多仓位下降

                                                                                                                                                                          美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)最新发布的周度数据显示,在截至6月4日当周,对冲基金等大型投资者持有的美元净多仓位金额为333.2亿美元,创下今年4月以来的低位,此前一周为346.1亿美元。

                                                                                                                                                                          而主要非美货币中,在美元指数权重中占比最高的欧元和日元净空仓规模的减少幅度最为明显。 

                                                                                                                                                                          截至6月4日当周,对冲基金持有的欧元投机性净空仓位较此前一周锐减12140手合约期货和期权合约,至87551手合约;持有的日元投机性净空仓位较此前一周大幅减少11188手合约,至44389手合约。

                                                                                                                                                                          此外,受到美元走软等因素提振,对冲基金持有的黄金投机性净多仓位较此前一周增加69427手合约,至156115手合约。

                                                                                                                                                                          在统计期内,多位美联储高层释放出了降息的信号,使得市场参与者进一步押注美元即将走软。6月4日,美联储主席鲍威尔就表示,美联储正在密切监测近期一些问题给美国经济带来的影响,并将采取适当措施确保经济增长能够持续。他强调,联邦储备基金利率再次接近零利率区间将“不是一件令人惊讶的事情”。6月3日,今年拥有投票权的委员、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德也表示,美联储可能很快就有理由降息,以便提振通胀,这是美联储票委首次正面支持降息。

                                                                                                                                                                          美元见顶预期渐浓

                                                                                                                                                                          随着降息预期升温,市场对于美联储见顶的预期也日渐浓厚。

                                                                                                                                                                          知名对冲基金Premium Capital Advisors首席投资官朱塞佩表示,美元兑许多主要发达市场货币的汇率已经开始“见顶”,未来随着美国国债收益率继续下跌,利差逐渐缩小意味着美元可能将会走软。

                                                                                                                                                                          摩根士丹利在最新报告中预计,目前综合通胀等因素看,美联储接连释放了“鸽派”的观点,如果美联储届时采取宽松行动,无疑将对美元构成打压。

                                                                                                                                                                          业内人士指出,最新公布的两大就业数据表现“大跌眼镜”,进一步加深了市场看跌美元的预期,在下个周期中对冲基金可能继续减持美元多仓。上周四公布的5月份ADP就业报告显示,美国当月新增就业岗位仅为2.7万个,远低于4月份的27.1万个,也差于市场此前预期的17.5万个,创下自2010年3月以来的最低值。美国劳工部上周五公布的非农就业数据显示,美国5月非农就业人数仅增加7.5万人,远低于市场预期的18万人。